Optimization of Asset Management Plans for Electric Assets Portfolios

Summary

Client: Shermco Industries, Canada.

Project: Optimization of Risk-Based 10-Year Asset Management Plan for Transformers in an Industrial Plant.

Using its flagship Asset OptimizerTM GIS-centered cloud-based software, IDS has worked with Shermco Industries to assess and forecast the Health Index for a portfolio of power transformers using inspection and testing results, build predictive and risk models, and develop optimal 10-year asset management plan.

Solution: Asset Optimizer

Asset OptimizerTM is uniquely positioned to meet the requirements for advanced decision analytics and asset management of electric assets. The software was used by IDS-trained Shermco staff to support detailed analysis of transformers inspection and test results, and the calculation of Health Indices considering a wide range of parameters such as dissolved gas analysis (DGA), oil quality, furan, power factor, load history, visual inspection, bushing condition, and age. Historical testing data was used to analyze historical performance trends and develop Weibull predictive models to forecast future performance and likelihood of failure of transformers. Criticality models were developed considering the consequence of a transformer failure with respect to safety, reliability, service interruption, and financial impact. Deterioration and criticality predictive models enabled accurate and reliable prediction of risks.

Cost and benefits models for two main interventions were defined: oil processing/refurbishment and transformer replacement. Multiple budget and performance target scenarios were then defined and used to generate optimal annual project lists that maximize system-level performance, minimize risk, and minimize lifecycle costs. Scenario trade-off analysis helped to quantify relationships between funding levels and performance and risk metrics, and enabled the development of optimized and defensible 10-year asset management plan for all transformers. Using a similar approach, lifecycle models and asset management plans for other electric assets, such as circuit breakers and conductors, can also be supported.

Download Case Study

20-Year Risk-Based Optimal Renewal Plan for City of Regina Water Distribution Network

Challenge: Optimize Water Mains Long-Range Renewal Plans

The City of Regina manages an inventory of approximately 1,155 km of water mains, about 30% of which were constructed 50 years ago. In face of increasing demand and limited financial resources, the City needed to develop optimized 20-year risk-based renewal plans for its ageing water mains inventory to minimize risks, maximize network performance, and ensure service reliability. Although the City has been undertaking several initiatives to optimize water main renewal projects, current approaches often relied on subjective and heuristic methods to prioritize projects and were not capable of generating optimized long-term renewal plans. The City needed a solution that can support risk-based multi-objective optimization to maximize network-level condition, minimize risk, and minimize lifecycle costs. The City required the solution to be capable of accurately determining funding needs to meet performance and risk targets, and identify annual optimal project lists over a 20-year planning horizon.

Solution: Asset Optimizer

IDS Asset OptimizerTM GIS-centered cloud-based software was used to support lifecycle modeling and asset management planning of the City’s water network. Asset OptimizerTM was then used to perform in-depth data analysis and develop data-driven deterioration and risk models. The deterioration models for various pipe groups were developed to forecast the rate of deterioration (i.e., growth of pipe break rate) based on historical break data. The consequence of pipe break was assessed based on multiple criteria such as pipe’s location, diameter, level of service criticality, number of affected customers, etc. The forecasted condition and criticality of each pipe segment was used to calculate a risk metric. Two renewal actions were defined: open-cut replacement and lining using cured-in-place (CIPP). The cost of renewal actions was assumed based on historical data and industry average. Benefits were defined in terms of condition improvement increments.

Optimal annual project lists under multiple planning scenarios were generated and analyzed to assess the impact of various funding levels, and to determine funding needs to meet performance and risk targets. Detailed analysis of various scenarios helped to accurately quantify relationships between funding levels and system-wide condition and risk metrics and to optimally select projects where mostly needed. This analysis supported the development of objective, defensible, and optimized water mains renewal plan that is aligned with the City policies and service goals.

Download Case Study

Cost-Benefit Analysis for Upgrading Regina’s AMR System to Fixed-Network AMI

Overview

Client: City of Regina

Location: Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada

Project: Preliminary Cost-Benefit Analysis for Upgrading City of Regina’s Automated Meter Reading (AMR) System to Fixed-Network Advanced Meter Infrastructure (AMI)

IDS was commissioned by the City of Regina to investigate and compare the costs and benefits of possible options to maintain the City’s current AMR system or to upgrade it to fixed-network advanced metering infrastructure (AMI). IDS has developed a rigorous cost-benefit analysis procedure and software tool to evaluate a range of possible scenarios, and furnished recommendations based on the economic merits of various scenarios.

Challenge

The City of Regina’s water system provides water for residential, commercial, and industrial customers as well as water for irrigation and summer service. The City’s water system serves nearly 70,000 utility accounts for a population of approximately 207,000. In 2002, the City of Regina has initiated a utility-wide program to install a drive-by Automated Meter Reading (AMR) system and replace almost its entire water meter inventory. As this system is approaching the end of its design life of 20 years, the City needs to evaluate and compare the costs and benefits of possible options to maintain current AMR or upgrade to fixed-network advanced metering infrastructure (AMI).

Solution

IDS has developed a rigorous cost-benefit analysis procedure and software tool to evaluate a range of possible options and deployment scenarios for maintaining the City’s current AMR system or upgrading to AMI. The analysis was applied to assess economic merits of alternative scenarios and provide a quantitative evaluation of various scenarios in terms of their associated costs and quantifiable benefits. The defined scenarios considered a number of deployment decisions including: deployment period, possibility to coordinate meter replacement with AMI deployment, and use of vendor’s hosted software services (SaaS) versus in-house management of IT systems.

Working closely with City staff and a number of AMI vendors, information on various cost elements associated with current AMR system and possible AMI implementation scenarios have been collected and used to analyze whole life costs and economic merits of each scenario over 20-year planning horizon. In each scenario analysis, all yearly capital and operating cost and saving over the 20 year period were estimated and converted to present value using an appropriate discount rate. The analysis considered quantifiable economic benefits of AMI systems, namely, operating costs savings and the revenue recovery due to meter replacement associated with AMI deployment. Key economic measures, including net present value (NPV) and benefit cost ratio (BCR), of possible AMI deployment scenarios were assessed and compared. Analysis results and recommendations on a preferred option and deployment considerations will assist in preparing a business case using a rigorous economic analysis and objective evaluation of possible scenarios.

Advanced Analytics and Trend Analysis of Water Consumption and Supply in the City of Regina

Overview

Client: City of Regina

Location: Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada

Project: Assessment of Historical Water Use Trends and Long-Term Forecast of Water Demand in Regina (Based on Nine Years of Automated Meter Reading and Water Supply Data)

IDS was commissioned by the City of Regina to analyze water trends in the City over the past nine years using meter reading data collected by the City’s drive-by automated meter reading (AMR) system as well as storage, pumping, and treatment data collected by the City’s SCADA system. This historical information is invaluable in understanding the impact of such parameters as seasonality, population growth, conservation measures, and water rates on the patterns of water consumption and non-revenue water.

Challenge

The City of Regina’s water system provides water for residential, commercial, and industrial customers as well as water for irrigation, summer service, and fire protection. The system serves a population of approximately 207,000. Over the past decade, the City of Regina has invested heavily to implement state-of-the-art automated meter reading (AMR) and SCADA technologies, which enabled the collection of massive amounts of water consumption and supply data. Processing and analyzing this data could provide wealth of information on the intrinsic behavior of the system and to reliably forecast future water demand. This information will be invaluable to support decisions on system operations, capacity planning, and demand management. However, this analysis would require the use of specialized analytics algorithms and software tools that are not readily available in the market.

Solution

To undertake this project, IDS has developed a unique data analytics solution to implement specialized algorithms to process and analyze the massive amount of Regina’s water data over nine years study period (2005-2013). The solution was designed to provide detailed analysis of water consumption data across various service sectors based on AMR data, as well as water storage, supply, and treatment data. The solution also supported analysis of trends and relationships between water use, population change, non-revenue water, system capacity, per capita use, and climate conditions.

The solution was used to analyze daily, weekly, monthly, annual, and multi-year water consumption based on AMR data and to assess historical trends of water consumption for various service classes (residential, multi-residential, commercial, irrigation, and summer services). The solution was also used to analyze water production and storage data and trends of reservoirs volume change and supply from the treatment plant. Trends of average and peak daily demand, and average per capita demand were also analyzed. Weather data during the study period were also analyzed to examine possible correlation with water consumption trends. The solution was also used to analyze trends in non-revenue water over the study period and evaluate correlation with demand levels and time of the year. The analysis results will provide valuable insights into the intrinsic behavior of the system and forecasting of future water demand. The results will also help define feasible service level targets and support decisions on system operations, capacity planning, and demand management.

Long-Term Forecast of Water Demand in the City of Regina

Project Description

Client:   City of Regina
Location:   Regina, Saskatchewan

Assessment of Historical Water Use Trends and Long-Term Forecast of Water Demand in Regina (Based on Nine Years of Automated Meter Reading and Water Supply Data)

IDS was commissioned by the City of Regina to develop reliable models and innovative solutions to forecast water demand over the next 20 years using detailed data on City population, water consumption, and water supply over the past nine years. This project also involved assessing the adequacy of current system capacity for meeting future demand.

Challenge

The City of Regina is experiencing significant economic and population growth, which is projected to continue into the future. As competing priorities and limited financial resources continue to constrain the ability to make costly new investments to significantly expand the water system capacity, effective management of water use and loss levels is recognized to be the most cost-effective strategy to meet increasing demands.

Solution

An innovative solution to forecast water demand over the next 20 years was developed. Future water demand was forecasted based on historical demand time series, estimated population growth and per capita demand pattern over the next 20 years, while assuming the continuity of water use and supply trends and operational practices. Population was forecasted using an exponential smoothening space state model based on historical population data. The time series of per capita demand over the next 20 years was forecasted using an innovative autoregressive integrated moving average model. The total water demand over the next 20 years was then obtained by multiplying the forecasted time series of per capita demand and projected population. Other forecasting models were also developed to estimate the seasonality of total consumption for both residential and commercial service classes. The demand forecast also considered fire protection and regulatory requirements. The adequacy of the City of Regina’s storage and treatment capacity were assessed and compared to the forecasted demand over the next 20 years.

The resulting water demand forecast model will enable the development of defensible evidence-based plans to meet forecasted water demand and to gain deeper understanding of water consumption and supply trends in the City. The model will also help to justify planning decisions with regard to the system capacity and requirements for meeting future demand.